Seasonal dynamic factor analysis and bootstrap inference : application to electricity market forecasting

Year-ahead forecasting of electricity prices is an important issue in the current context of electricity markets. Nevertheless, only one-day-ahead forecasting is commonly tackled up in previous published works. Moreover, methodology developed for the short-term does not work properly for long-term forecasting. In this paper we provide a seasonal extension of the Non-Stationary Dynamic Factor Analysis, to deal with the interesting problem (both from the economic and engineering point of view) of long term forecasting of electricity prices. Seasonal Dynamic Factor Analysis (SeaDFA) allows to deal with dimensionality reduction in vectors of time series, in such a way that extracts common and specific components. Furthermore, common factors are able to capture not only regular dynamics (stationary or not) but also seasonal one, by means of common factors following a multiplicative seasonal VARIMA(p,d,q)×(P,D,Q)s model. Besides, a bootstrap procedure is proposed to be able to make inference on all the parameters involved in the model. A bootstrap scheme developed for forecasting includes uncertainty due to parameter estimation, allowing to enhance the coverage of forecast confidence intervals. Concerning the innovative and challenging application provided, bootstrap procedure developed allows to calculate not only point forecasts but also forecasting intervals for electricity prices.Dynamic factor analysis, Bootstrap, Forecasting, Confidence intervals

Industrial manufacturing and characterization of multiscale CFRP laminates made from prepregs containing graphene-related materials

The introduction of graphene-related materials (GRMs) in carbon fibre-reinforced polymers (CFRP) has been proved to enhance their mechanical and electrical properties. However, methodologies to produce the 3-phase materials (multiscale composites) at an industrial scale and in an efficient manner are still lacking. In this paper, multiscale CFRP composites containing different GRMs have been manufactured following standard procedures currently used in the aerospace industry with the aim to evaluate its potential application. Graphite nanoplateletelets (GNPs), in situ exfoliated graphene oxide (GO) and reduced graphene oxide (rGO) have been dispersed into an epoxy resin to subsequently impregnate aeronautical grade carbon fibre tape. The resulting prepregs have been used for manufacturing laminates by hand lay-up and autoclave curing at 180 {\deg}C. Abroad characterization campaign has been carried out to understand the behaviour of the different multiscale laminates manufactured. The degree of cure, glass transition temperature and degradation temperature have been evaluated by thermal evolution techniques. Similarly, their mechanical properties (tensile, flexural, in-plane shear, interlaminar shear and mode I interlaminar fracture toughness) have been analysed together with their electrical conductivity. The manufacturing process resulted appropriated for producing three-phase laminates and their quality was as good as in conventional CFRPs. The addition ofGOand rGO resulted in an enhancement of the in-plane shear properties and delamination resistance while the addition ofGNPimproved the electrical conductivity

Anterior-segment optical coherence tomography for the detection and therapeutic monitoring of corneal disorders

Background: Over recent years a revolutionary trend happened on imaging technologies to diagnose and monitor treatment of a varied group of ophthalmic pathologies. Recent reports have analyzed the microstructural changes of various ocular surface and corneal disorders, particularly ocular surface squamous neoplasia (OSSN) and keratoconus using anterior-segment optical coherence tomography (AS-OCT). Aim of this short communication is to elaborate on clinical applications AS-OCT for the detection and therapeutic monitoring of corneal disorders. Methods: We performed an English literature search without a time limit and intending to identify articles related to the AS-OCT applications in the detection and therapeutic monitoring of corneal disorders. The most relevant articles were selected.  practical points of selected papers and advantages and disadvantages of AS-OCT were retrieved from them and summarized. Results:.Many records reported the AS-OCT applications for diagnosing many ocular surface disorders, the microstructural changes of different inflammatory, infectious, degenerative, and dystrophic corneal disorders. Its applications in identifying disease activity and therapeutic monitoring of various corneal pathologies, including stromal edema associated with angle-closure glaucoma, Fuchs endothelial dystrophy, infectious keratitis, and bullous keratopathy, are promising. The percentage of diagnostic sensitivity, specificity, and accuracy of artificial intelligence methodologies applied to AS-OCT imaging analysis today has reached 94% to 100%. Moreover, AS-OCT is very useful for analyzing the extension of scar and leukoma depth for surgical planning of partial or total corneal transplantation. Conclusions: There is a clear prospect for expanding application of corneal OCT imaging technology, a rapid, non-invasive, and now a promising lower-cost device, which is becoming an in-office standard-of-care tool for the assessment of different corneal and ocular surface pathologies. KEYWORDS anterior-segment optical coherence tomography, AS-OCT, ocular surface disorders, corneal disorders, ocular surface squamous neoplasia, OSSN, keratoconu

On Board Neuro Fuzzy Inverse Optimal Control for Type 1 Diabetes Mellitus Treatment: In-Silico Testing

Type 1 Diabetes Mellitus (T1DM) is one of the most adverse diseases in the modern era; its treatment is mainly based on exogenous insulin injections. The scientific community has formulated strategies to improve insulin supply using state-of-the-art technology. Therefore, this article develops a multi-age glycemic control scheme, which can be implemented in an Artificial Pancreas (AP) device to enhance diabetics treatment. The procedure is based on the implementation of a neuro-fuzzy inverse optimal control (NFIOC) algorithm on the Texas Instrument LAUNCHXLF28069M development board; this controller communicates with the Uva/Padova simulator for diabetics' patients of different ages under predefined meal protocols running on a Personal Computer (PC). The novelty lies in the proposed NFIOC capability to regulate glucose within safe levels for virtual populations of 10 adults, 10 adolescents and, 10 children. © 2022 AEC

In Vivo Corneal Microstructural Changes in Herpetic Stromal Keratitis: A Spectral-Domain Optical Coherence Tomography Analysis

Purpose: To describe and analyze the microstructural changes in herpetic stromal keratitis (HSK) observed in vivo by spectral-domain ocular coherence tomography (SD-OCT) at different stages of the disease. Methods: A prospective, cross-sectional, observational, and comparative SD-OCT analysis of corneas with active and inactive keratitis was performed, and the pathologic differences between the necrotizing and non-necrotizing forms of the disease were analyzed. Results: Fifty-three corneas belonging to 43 (81.1%) women and 10 (18.8%) men with a mean age of 41.0 years were included for analysis. Twenty-four (45.3%) eyes had active keratitis, and 29 (54.7%) had inactive keratitis; the majority (83.0%) had the non-necrotizing form. Most corneas (79.1%) with active keratitis showed stromal edema and inflammatory infiltrates. Almost half of the active lesions affected the visual axis, were found at mid-stromal depth, and had a medium density. By contrast, corneas with inactive keratitis were characterized by stromal scarring (89.6%), epithelial remodeling (72.4%), and stromal thinning (68.9%). In contrast to non-necrotizing corneas, those with necrotizing HSK showed severe stromal scarring, inflammatory infiltration, and thinning. Additionally, most necrotizing lesions (77.7%) affected the visual axis and had a higher density (P = 0.010). Conclusion: Active HSK is characterized by significant epithelial and stromal thickening and the inactive disease manifests epithelial remodeling at sites of stromal thinning due to scarring. Necrotizing keratitis is characterized by distorted corneal architecture, substantial stromal inflammatory infiltration, and thinning. In vivo SD-OCT analysis permitted a better understanding of the inflammatory and repair mechanisms occurring in this blinding corneal disease

Cardiovascular magnetic resonance evaluation of aortic stenosis severity using single plane measurement of effective orifice area

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Transthoracic echocardiography (TTE) is the standard method for the evaluation of the severity of aortic stenosis (AS). Valve effective orifice area (EOA) measured by the continuity equation is one of the most frequently used stenotic indices. However, TTE measurement of aortic valve EOA is not feasible or not reliable in a significant proportion of patients. Cardiovascular magnetic resonance (CMR) has emerged as a non-invasive alternative to evaluate EOA using velocity measurements. The objectives of this study were: 1) to validate a new CMR method using jet shear layer detection (JSLD) based on acoustical source term (AST) concept to estimate the valve EOA; 2) to introduce a simplified JSLD method not requiring vorticity field derivation.</p> <p>Methods and results</p> <p>We performed an in vitro study where EOA was measured by CMR in 4 fixed stenoses (EOA = 0.48, 1.00, 1.38 and 2.11 cm²) under the same steady flow conditions (4-20 L/min). The in vivo study included eight (8) healthy subjects and 37 patients with mild to severe AS (0.72 cm²≤ EOA ≤ 1.71 cm²). All subjects underwent TTE and CMR examinations. EOA was determinated by TTE with the use of continuity equation method (TTE_CONT). For CMR estimation of EOA, we used 3 methods: 1) Continuity equation (CMR_CONT); 2) Shear layer detection (CMR_JSLD), which was computed from the velocity field of a single CMR velocity profile at the peak systolic phase; 3) Single plane velocity truncation (CMR_SPVT), which is a simplified version of CMR_JSLDmethod. There was a good agreement between the EOAs obtained in vitro by the different CMR methods and the EOA predicted from the potential flow theory. In the in vivo study, there was good correlation and concordance between the EOA measured by the TTE_CONTmethod versus those measured by each of the CMR methods: CMR_CONT(r = 0.88), CMR_JSLD(r = 0.93) and CMR_SPVT(r = 0.93). The intra- and inter- observer variability of EOA measurements was 5 ± 5% and 9 ± 5% for TTE_CONT, 2 ± 1% and 7 ± 5% for CMR_CONT, 7 ± 5% and 8 ± 7% for CMR_JSLD, 1 ± 2% and 3 ± 2% for CMR_SPVT. When repeating image acquisition, reproducibility of measurements was 10 ± 8% and 12 ± 5% for TTE_CONT, 9 ± 9% and 8 ± 8% for CMR_CONT, 6 ± 5% and 7 ± 4% for CMR_JSLDand 3 ± 2% and 2 ± 2% for CMR_SPVT.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>There was an excellent agreement between the EOA estimated by the CMR_JSLDor CMR_SPVTmethods and: 1) the theoretical EOA in vitro, and 2) the TTE_CONTEOA in vivo. The CMR_SPVTmethod was superior to the TTE and other CMR methods in terms of measurement variability. The novel CMR-based methods proposed in this study may be helpful to corroborate stenosis severity in patients for whom Doppler-echocardiography exam is inconclusive.</p

How Prosecutors and Defense Attorneys Differ in Their Use of Neuroscience Evidence

Much of the public debate surrounding the intersection of neuroscience and criminal law is based on assumptions about how prosecutors and defense attorneys differ in their use of neuroscience evidence. For example, according to some commentators, the defense’s use of neuroscience evidence will abdicate criminals of all responsibility for their offenses. In contrast, the prosecution’s use of that same evidence will unfairly punish the most vulnerable defendants as unfixable future dangers to society. This “double- edged sword” view of neuroscience evidence is important for flagging concerns about the law’s construction of criminal responsibility and punishment: it demonstrates that the same information about the defendant can either be mitigating or aggravating depending on who is raising it. Yet empirical assessments of legal decisions reveal a far more nuanced reality, showing that public beliefs about the impact of neuroscience on the criminal law can often be wrong. This Article takes an evidence-based and multidisciplinary approach to examining how courts respond to neuroscience evidence in capital cases when the defense presents it to argue that the defendant’s mental state at the time of the crime was below the given legal requisite due to some neurologic or cognitive deficiency

Experimental Study based on the Implementation of a Regulatory Framework for the Improvement of Cyber Resilience in SMEs

Currently, applying regulations oriented to cybersecurity, cyber resilience is relevant to face the high rates of cyberattacks, which have caused an interruption in the operational processes of organizations, generating an economic loss, and affecting the continuity of their business processes on the web. In this scenario, small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) are the most affected due to their weak technological infrastructure. Given this, this experimental study was developed to implement a regulatory framework for the improvement of cyber resilience; the criteria anticipate, resist, recover and evolve presented significant statistical values of improvement after the application of the experiment. This research contributes to counteract the refusal to use information technologies for business development; Improvement actions were carried out to face threats and computer vulnerabilities to which organizations are exposed when carrying out operations in cyberspace

The impact of the crisis in the external policy of Brazil

UID/CPO/04627/2013publishersversionpublishe

Involvement of the subthalamic nucleus in impulse control disorders associated with Parkinson’s disease

Behavioural abnormalities such as impulse control disorders may develop when patients with Parkinson’s disease receive dopaminergic therapy, although they can be controlled by deep brain stimulation of the subthalamic nucleus. We have recorded local field potentials in the subthalamic nucleus of 28 patients with surgically implanted subthalamic electrodes. According to the predominant clinical features of each patient, their Parkinson’s disease was associated with impulse control disorders (n = 10), dyskinesias (n = 9) or no dopaminergic mediated motor or behavioural complications (n = 9). Recordings were obtained during the OFF and ON dopaminergic states and the power spectrum of the subthalamic activity as well as the subthalamocortical coherence were analysed using Fourier transform-based techniques. The position of each electrode contact was determined in the postoperative magnetic resonance image to define the topography of the oscillatory activity recorded in each patient. In the OFF state, the three groups of patients had similar oscillatory activity. By contrast, in the ON state, the patients with impulse control disorders displayed theta-alpha (4–10 Hz) activity (mean peak: 6.71 Hz) that was generated 2–8mm below the intercommissural line. Similarly, the patients with dyskinesia showed theta-alpha activity that peaked at a higher frequency (mean: 8.38 Hz) and was generated 0–2mm below the intercommissural line. No such activity was detected in patients that displayed no dopaminergic side effects. Cortico-subthalamic coherence was more frequent in the impulsive patients in the 4–7.5 Hz range in scalp electrodes placed on the frontal regions anterior to the primary motor cortex, while in patients with dyskinesia it was in the 7.5–10 Hz range in the leads overlying the primary motor and supplementary motor area. Thus, dopaminergic side effects in Parkinson’s disease are associated with oscillatory activity in the theta-alpha band, but at different frequencies and with different topography for the motor (dyskinesias) and behavioural (abnormal impulsivity) manifestations. These findings suggest that the activity recorded in parkinsonian patients with impulse control disorders stems from the associative-limbic area (ventral subthalamic area), which is coherent with premotor frontal cortical activity. Conversely, in patients with L-dopa-induced dyskinesias such activity is recorded in the motor area (dorsal subthalamic area) and it is coherent with cortical motor activity. Consequently, the subthalamic nucleus appears to be implicated in the motor and behavioural complications associated with dopaminergic drugs in Parkinson’s disease, specifically engaging different anatomo-functional territories